Bridging The Gap workshop

24-26 June 2026

Reading (UK) & Online

WMO Logo WWRP logo JWGFVR logo University of Reading logo Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth logo

Forecast verification is a critical component in the development and evaluation of weather prediction models. Spatial weather fields present unique challenges for verification due to their complex structures and the inherent spatial dependencies. Two main approaches have emerged to tackle these challenges: spatial verification methods designed to mitigate the double penalty effect and consistent/proper scores motivated by theoretical decision-making principles.

Bridging The Gap is a research project aimed at connecting these two communities to foster collaboration and advance the field of spatial verification for ensemble forecasts. Bridging The Gap is an activity of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The project seeks to explore the links between spatial verification methods and consistent/proper scores, develop new methodologies, and address current challenges of spatial verification (e.g., ensemble forecasts and AI-based weather prediction models).

This workshop aims to highlight recent developments in both communities, encourage knowledge exchange, and identify future research directions.

Program

The Plenary sessions will take place in the Slingo Lecture Theatre in the JJ Thomson building at the University of Reading (see Number 3 on this map). All the coffee breaks will take place in the foyer in front of the Slingo Lecture Theatre.

Wednesday 24 June

09:00 – 12:30
Closed discussion session
12:30 – 13:30
Welcome lunch
13:30 – 17:00
Workshop introduction
Barbara Casati (ECCC, JWGFVR co-chair) (1 h)
Main outcomes from the Spatial Verification Inter-Comparison and MesoVICT Projects
Sebastian Buschow (FZ Jülich) (30 min)
Wavelet-based verification of deterministic and ensemble forecasts
Discussion (30 min)
Coffee break
Sebastian Lerch (Uni. Marburg) (30 min)
Comparing generative ML methods for spatial post-processing using spatially aware scoring rules
17:00 – 18:00
Sam Allen (KIT)
Assessing the multivariate calibration of probabilistic forecasts
Thomas Wilkinson (Uni. Exeter)
Testing the calibration of fixed-event probability forecast sequences

Thursday 25 June

09:00 – 10:30
Closed discussion session
Collaboration and discussion session
10:30 – 11:00
Coffee break
11:00 – 12:30
Closed discussion session
Collaboration and discussion session
12:30 – 13:30
Lunch
13:30 – 17:00
Rakesh Teja Konduru (JAXA) (30 min)
Credibility Score to quantify the uncertainty of forecasting systems
Llorenç Lledó (ECMWF) (1 h)
Global spatial verification at ECMWF
Coffee break
Marion Mittermaier (Met Office) (1 h)
How can we be sure that spatial methods tell us what we need to know (not what we want to know)
Discussion (30 min)
19:00
Workshop dinner

Friday 26 June

09:00 – 10:15
Closed discussion session
10:15 – 10:45
Coffee break
10:45 – 12:00
Dominique Brunet (ECCC) (30 min)
Are the Hausdorff distance, the warping distance and the Structural Similarity (SSIM) proper?
Romain Pic (ETHZ) (30 min)
1D Probabilistic fields for spatial meta-verification
Roger Harbord (Met Office) (30 min)
Spatial ensemble verification against gridded truth: behaviour of a proper score with neighbourhood size
Workshop closing remarks
12:00 – 13:30
Informal lunch (not provided)
13:30 – 15:00
Closed discussion session

Contributions and Registration

Contributions on spatial verification approaches for AI, hybrid and traditional NWP models are welcome. Topics of interest include (but are not limited to) the following topics:

  • Spatial methods: neighborhood, filtering and scale-separation approaches; field morphing and displacement methods.
  • Theory-motivated scores: consistent scoring functions, proper scoring rules, calibration.
  • Adaptation of methods for deterministic forecasts to ensemble forecasts.
  • Investigation of links between consistent/proper scores and spatial verification methods.
  • Applications: operational forecasts, energy production, AI-based forecasts, etc.
The Bridging The Gap workshop will run back-to-back with the Ver-AI workshop. Registration for both workshop is now closed. Contact the organizers if needed.

Timeline

May 1 Deadline for contributions and registration
June 22–23 Ver-AI workshop
June 24–26 Bridging The Gap workshop

Acknowledgements

This workshop is made possible through the support of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Organizers

  • Romain Pic (ETH Zurich; romain.pic@math.ethz.ch)
  • Jochen Bröcker (University of Reading)

Administrative contact:

  • Guannan Hu (University of Reading; guannan.hu@reading.ac.uk)